851
FXUS61 KRLX 072334
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
734 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE ROOST TODAY INTO MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK,
YIELDING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS EVENING AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND WE STILL EXPECT VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 1238 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH COOL AND CALM
CONDITIONS, AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER FOG BURNS OFF MONDAY MORNING, LOOKING AT A
SUNNY DRY DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT RAINS SHOULD KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1238 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW RH, BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
DURING THE PERIOD. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1238 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES, BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD JUST BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE, WITH UPPER RIDGE NUDGING EAST INTO OUR AREA AS WE
ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INITIALLY AS ANY LINGERING CUMULUS
OR STRATOCU DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALMING WINDS, AND SOME LATENT MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAINS, ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED. AS
ALWAYS, COULD BE SOME VARIATION ON THE ONSET TIMING AT A GIVEN
LOCATION, BUT WE DO HAVE CRW, PKB, AND EKN GOING DOWN TO LIFR,
WITH CKB AND HTS SEEING LESS DENSE FOG, AND BKW REMAINING IN THE
CLEAR. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z, TOMORROW
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VFR DAY, WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON CU FIELD IN
THE FL050-080 RANGE AND GENTLE NE'LY WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT MEDIUM ON FOG EXTENT AND
TIMING.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 09/08/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR VALLEY FOG IN DEEPER/FAVORED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK
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