937
FXUS61 KRLX 080523
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
YIELDING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AMID GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS EVENING AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND WE STILL EXPECT VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 1238 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH COOL AND CALM
CONDITIONS, AND FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS. AFTER FOG BURNS OFF MONDAY MORNING, LOOKING AT A
SUNNY DRY DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT RAINS SHOULD KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1238 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW RH, BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
DURING THE PERIOD. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS DURING THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1238 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES, BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD JUST BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE, WITH UPPER RIDGE NUDGING EAST INTO OUR AREA AS WE
ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS CURRENTLY FORMING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE BEFORE
DAWN. FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE VFR PERSISTS OUTSIDE OF FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE FOG DISSIPATES BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z, THEN AREAWIDE VFR TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUMULUS FIELD IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AFTER 00Z, ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED; HOWEVER, LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO SOME OF THE DEEPER,
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 09/08/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L M M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR VALLEY FOG IN DEEPER/FAVORED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...FK/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...20
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