584
FXUS61 KRLX 021647
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1247 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE ENTIRE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGHS
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.
EFFICIENT COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES,
LOW DEW POINTS, AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
LOWLANDS, BUT SOME OF THE MOST SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COULD
POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S. PATCHY, DENSE
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULDN'T BE WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM THURSDAY...
ONCE AGAIN, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER PATTERN IS GENERALLY THE SAME AS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEAR-TERM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL FINALLY
ARRIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM OF MOISTURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN AS
SOON AS TUESDAY, WHILE OTHERS HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW THAT 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WHICH WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE DROUGHT.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A
PATTERN CHANGE, WITH MUCH COOLER FALL-LIKE WEATHER RETURNING BEHIND
IT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1247 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY. EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AT KEKN, AND
PERHAPS KCRW AND KPKB. IFR AND LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY, FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG
MAY VARY BY LOCATION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
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