678
FXUS61 KRLX 030715
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 60S TO 70S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.
FOR TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO
LOW 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE FEATURES
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AMID THE CONTINUED DRY SPELL,
WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO REACH MID 60S TO LOW 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. MEANWHILE,
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES AND
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, THEN PERSIST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS
THE AREA MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, A TERMINAL OR TWO COULD EXPERIENCE
BRIEF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS IF WINDS WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED
BEFORE SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SUSTAINS VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/03/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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