670
FXUS61 KRLX 031022
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
622 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 60S TO 70S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS.
FOR TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO
LOW 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE FEATURES
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AMID THE CONTINUED DRY SPELL,
WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO REACH MID 60S TO LOW 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. MEANWHILE,
THE NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 310 AM FRIDAY...
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES AND
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, THEN PERSIST AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS
THE AREA MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. A PERIOD OF IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS MAY THEN BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS VALLEY FOG BEGINS
TO DEVELOP UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM FLOW.
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, THEN FLOW WILL BE
CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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