447
FXUS61 KRLX 031745
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT SLATED TO
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER AMID TRIUMPHANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON
SATURDAY. RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, FOLLOWED BY SATURDAY DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE
70S AND 80S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ITS REIGN OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK UNDER THE GUISE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING IN THE 70S
TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SPANNING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, COUPLED
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, MAY YIELD LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES.
WITH LEAF LITTER NOW OCCURRING DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR, THIS
COULD IMPOSE CLOSE MONITORING OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF RAIN PROGGED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPLY THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE DOME OF DOMINATING
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONDENSE AND PUSH
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH CARVES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT WILL BOLSTER THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN SPREADING DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TIP OVER INTO MIDWEEK AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE COUNTRY,
SERVING UP MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THIS DROUGHT STRICKEN AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BRING THE RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME GLOBAL MODELS HOLD
ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LONGER THAN OTHERS, SO SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE
DEPARTURE OF RAIN AND POST-FRONTAL STRATUS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
DAYTIME HOURS WILL FEATURE CAVU CONDITIONS BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY AMID PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE. AS SUFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT, RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
FESTERING OVER THE AREA, FOG PRODUCTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
CLOSER TO SUNRISE, RESULTING IN A SHORT TIME SPAN WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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