172
FXUS61 KRLX 040711
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
311 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK COURTESY
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD
THEN ERODE FROM THE AREA BY MID-MORNING.
ANOTHER WARM, DRY DAY WILL MATERIALIZE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION BENEATH A STAUNCH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER A COOL MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS PROJECTED TO REACH MID 60S TO
LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO 50S
OVERNIGHT, WITH CALM, CLEAR CONDITIONS PAVING THE WAY FOR MORE
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK DESPITE A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. MOISTURE THEN STARTS TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES
FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
DAILY HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S IN THE LOWLANDS AND UPPER 60S
TO LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 40S TO
50S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE AREA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING, THEN PERSIST AS THE
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF IN ITS WAKE.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY; THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS
SOME MODELS REMAIN DRY WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A
SHORTWAVE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT
AND THEN REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS FOG DEVELOPS IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, WITH EKN, CRW, AND PKB BEING THE MOST
LIKELY TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE IFR OR WORSE CIGS/VIS BEFORE
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS FOG LIFTS BETWEEN
12-14Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SUSTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 10/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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