531
FXUS61 KRLX 041749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK COURTESY
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
THE ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS FORMATION AND EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, IDYLLIC
WEEKEND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RISE BY A
DEGREE OR TWO IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVATIONS UNDERWAY FOR TODAY,
REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE
GUISE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, OUTSIDE
OF VALLEY FOG, SUNDAY MORNING MAY ONCE AGAIN IMPOSE MOUNTAIN
VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CENTRAL
GUIDANCE, SO TOOK THAT INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
TRIUMPHANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT THAT HAS DRIVEN OUR MULTI-
DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. WHILE
REMAINING DRY ON MONDAY, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO BEGIN ITS REIGN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE
SUPPORT OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
BE ATTACHED TO THIS PASSING FRONT, ENCOURAGING LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE MIDST OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, WHICH MAY PUT A DENT IN THE CURRENT
DROUGHT OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED STORM
TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE PAINTS AROUND AN
INCH WITH THIS PASSING FRONT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN ITS
WAKE. DRY WEATHER MAKES ITS RETURN AS A RESULT AND COULD CARRY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH REFRESHING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF
INTERRUPTIONS IN FLIGHT RULES PROGGED AMID OVERNIGHT RIVER
VALLEY FOG. A HINT OF A LOW LEVEL JET ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
SEVERAL TAF SITES WILL MITIGATE FOG SUNDAY MORNING, SO WITH THIS
ISSUANCE OPTED TO ONLY MESSAGE SUB-VFR AT EKN WHERE CONFIDENCE
FOR FOG PRODUCTION WAS STILL HIGH. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME CONDITIONS
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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