563
FXUS61 KRLX 050526
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
THE ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS FORMATION AND EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, IDYLLIC
WEEKEND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RISE BY A
DEGREE OR TWO IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVATIONS UNDERWAY FOR TODAY,
REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER THE
GUISE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, OUTSIDE
OF VALLEY FOG, SUNDAY MORNING MAY ONCE AGAIN IMPOSE MOUNTAIN
VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CENTRAL
GUIDANCE, SO TOOK THAT INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
TRIUMPHANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT THAT HAS DRIVEN OUR MULTI-
DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. WHILE
REMAINING DRY ON MONDAY, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO BEGIN ITS REIGN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE
SUPPORT OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
BE ATTACHED TO THIS PASSING FRONT, ENCOURAGING LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE MIDST OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, WHICH MAY PUT A DENT IN THE CURRENT
DROUGHT OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED STORM
TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE PAINTS AROUND AN
INCH WITH THIS PASSING FRONT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN ITS
WAKE. DRY WEATHER MAKES ITS RETURN AS A RESULT AND COULD CARRY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH REFRESHING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING,
WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR IS GREATEST FOR EKN, THOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION AT ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL TERMINALS.
ONCE ANY FOG LIFTS, AREAWIDE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVERHEAD. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/05/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...20
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