801
FXUS61 KRLX 050634
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN US,
ALLOWING THE ONGOING DRY SPELL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING 80S IN THE LOWLANDS AND UPPER
60S TO LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD ARISE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DESCEND
INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE
CONCERNS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY THE ABSENCE OF STRONG
WINDS.
TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK,
THOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, THEN PERSIST AS THE FRONT
PROCEEDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL ON
MONDAY, THEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EVENTUATE MORE
MODERATE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THEN REINTRODUCES DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING,
WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR IS GREATEST FOR EKN, THOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION AT ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL TERMINALS.
ONCE ANY FOG LIFTS, AREAWIDE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVERHEAD. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/05/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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