390
FXUS61 KRLX 051015
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN US,
ALLOWING THE ONGOING DRY SPELL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING 80S IN THE LOWLANDS AND UPPER
60S TO LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD ARISE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DESCEND
INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE
CONCERNS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY THE ABSENCE OF STRONG
WINDS.
TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK,
THOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, THEN PERSIST AS THE FRONT
PROCEEDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL ON
MONDAY, THEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EVENTUATE MORE
MODERATE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH THEN REINTRODUCES DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS AREAWIDE VFR AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE DAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN
TONIGHT, THOUGH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE FAIRLY LIMITED. EKN LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE
TERMINAL FOR FOG TO PRODUCE IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH FOR TODAY. LOW FOR FOG TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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