311
FXUS61 KRLX 052330
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
730 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS INTO TUESDAY MORNING COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COOLER TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AT THE TIME OF WRITING DEPICTED WIDESPREAD
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE GUISE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL YIELD WARMING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE 70S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE 80S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A STRONGER PUSH OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
IMPOSE INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOWERING
INTO A STRATUS DECK BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION OPENING UP THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN EARNEST FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE USHERED IN ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
FIRST BROUGHT INCREASED CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN ATTACHED TO THE
NEARING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO ATTACHED TO THE FRONT WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY YIELD LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. RAIN CHANCES TAPER DOWN JUST BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER, COUPLED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.
AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED
BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL HELP
TO SQUASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS FESTERING IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND REFRESHING TEMPERATURES PERMEATE INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE THE CULPRIT
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS RESIDENCY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE
ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT WILL RETAIN
A DRY FORECAST WITH THIS CURRENT ISSUANCE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE IN THE 60S/70S, THEN TUMBLING DOWN INTO THE 30S/40S
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE FLOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT EKN IN THE MORNING. DUE TO STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT AND THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS BEING SO GREAT
NOT THINKING FOG WILL FORM ELSEWHERE. IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE
SOME SUNRISE SURPRISE (IFR OR WORSE) AT CRW/PKB AS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO, BUT THE CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AND NOT POSE
ANY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY PROMOTING VFR CONDITONS THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR EKN OF COURSE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TURN
WEAK AND VARIABLE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS INVADING THE SKY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PKB/CRW MAY HAVE SOME FOG FORM JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page