492
FXUS61 KRLX 060600
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS INTO TONIGHT COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT BRINGS BENEFICIAL RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COOLER TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL SINCE LAST
WEEK DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE EATS COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IT WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY
TODAY WITH A WARM AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN PATCHY HIGH AND MID CLOUD FROM THE SOUTH, AS A WEAK
BUT MOISTURE-LADEN MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING APPROACHES.
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, A
MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS
THE BELT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE EASES SOUTHWARD, IT WILL PICK UP THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE AND PULL IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. WITH A POTENT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT, AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF WV
BY DAWN TUESDAY.
WITH ONLY PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUD, TEMPERATURES MAY TOP OUT
JUST A BIT HIGHER TODAY, COMPARED WITH THE WEEKEND. A MORE
ROBUST INCREASE IN CLOUD TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT.
15 TO 20KTS OF NOCTURNAL FLOW JUST ABOVE THE DECK WILL KEEP
VALLEY FOG LIMITED THIS MORNING, AND THAT, ALONG WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD TONIGHT, WILL LIMIT IT EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN EARNEST FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE USHERED IN ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
FIRST BROUGHT INCREASED CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CONTRIBUTE DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN ATTACHED TO THE
NEARING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO ATTACHED TO THE FRONT WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY YIELD LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. RAIN CHANCES TAPER DOWN JUST BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER, COUPLED WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.
AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED
BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL HELP
TO SQUASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS FESTERING IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND REFRESHING TEMPERATURES PERMEATE INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE THE CULPRIT
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS RESIDENCY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE
ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT WILL RETAIN
A DRY FORECAST WITH THIS CURRENT ISSUANCE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE IN THE 60S/70S, THEN TUMBLING DOWN INTO THE 30S/40S
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
SOUTHWEST NOCTURNAL FLOW OF 15 TO 20KTS JUST ABOVE THE DECK
WILL KEEP VALLEY FOG LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY EKN
FORECAST TO BE IMPACTED WITH VLIFR DENSE FOG AROUND 0900Z TO
AROUND 1230Z. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO BE NEARBY PKB AND
CRW AROUND DAWN THIS MORNING.
THE LARGE HIGH THAT HAS OTHERWISE PROVIDED VFR CONDITIONS SINCE
LAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, ONCE ANY MORNING FOG IS
GONE. HOWEVER, THAT HIGH WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, 06Z TUESDAY.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, AND THEN INCREASE A
BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE CALM
TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PKB/CRW MAY HAVE IFR OR WORSE FOG AROUND
SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE TABLE BELOW DOES NOT SUGGEST
THIS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/06/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...TRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page