485
FXUS61 KRLX 070650
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
250 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK BUT MOISTURE-LADEN DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTH, AND THEN
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COOLER TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A
WEAK BUT MOISTURE-LADEN MID-LEVCEL DISTURBANCE THAT ORIGINATED
FROM THE GULF CROSSING THE AREA AHEAD OF IT THIS MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRIMARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS
SETUP IS DRAWING A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA INDICATING PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) VALUES SURGING TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR ASCENT IN THE MOIST
AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE 3KM NAM, ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME, LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS AND BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RAINFALL
RATES.
THE QPF IS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD STILL RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS, POSSIBLY TO THE TUNE OF TWO
INCHES, STILL RESIDES OVER THE KANAWHA VALLEY. HOWEVER, THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE THIS
AXIS SETS UP, WITH THE CANADIAN WAY UP NORTH, THE HIRESW FV3
CORE A BIT TO THE NORTH, THE HIRESWARW SOUTH, AND THE NAM SUITE
OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANAWHA VALLEY. WITH FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE ON THE ORDER OF 1.75 INCHES ON ONE HOUR, 2.25 INCHES IN
THREE, AND UP AROUND 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS, AND THIS BEING A LONG
DURATION EVENT, URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED STREAM RISES WILL
OTHERWISE BE BENEFICIAL AND WELCOME.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLOOKED ONLY GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE (~500-1000 J/KG)
FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
WHICH WILL EXACERBATE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT, AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS.
THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. IT THEN MAY NOT
RAIN FOR A WHILE AGAIN.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY COMPARED WITH THR
PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S COME
DAWN WEDNESDAY, LOWEST NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST SOUTHEAST, IN THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
A NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY,
PROVIDING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, AND PREVAILING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 50S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL RELATIVELY MILD, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER TO MID 50S. HOWEVER, BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AIRMASS WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, TO THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
THE DRY EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OR VIRGINIA
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE APPALACHIANS
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE WHETHER THIS RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD REACH OUR LOCAL AREA IS IN QUESTION. OTHERWISE, THE
AUTUMNAL WEATHER PATTERN AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND COOL
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 205 AM TUESDAY...
AN APPROACHING MOISTURE-LADEN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GULF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR EARLY THIS MORNING, IN THAT
CLOUDS AND 20 TO 25 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL PREVENT FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER, RAIN
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN ELSEWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ALSO DEVELOP.
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DECREASE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES, BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR OR BETTER
PREDOMINATELY THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND GOING INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE RAIN SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT, WITH VISIBILITY LOWERING TO IFR
IN RAIN AT TIMES. IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO PKB
TONIGHT, AND PERHAPS CKB TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT, 06Z WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING, AND CAN STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
COULD REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 06Z WEDNESDAY, WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AT PKB AND HTS. THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING, AND THEN DIMINISH A BIT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALOFT TONIGHT, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST REACHING THE OHIO
RIVER TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN RAIN TODAY
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST, AND THEN CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE LIKELY
TO FLUCTUATE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS UNDER STRATUS MAY
MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN FORECAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHTNING AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/07/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN, FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
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