749
FXUS61 KRLX 071101
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
701 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK BUT MOISTURE-LADEN DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTH, AND THEN
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY AND COOLER TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...
THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAD REACHED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
EARLY THIS MORNING IN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE FOUND IN A RELATIVE BREAK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLUSTER BACK OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A QUARTER TO CLOSE
TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN HAD FALLEN WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER SO
FAR. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A
WEAK BUT MOISTURE-LADEN MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT ORIGINATED
FROM THE GULF CROSSING THE AREA AHEAD OF IT THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A PRIMARY
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SETUP IS
DRAWING A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF, WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUES SURGING TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS AREA FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR ASCENT IN THE MOIST
AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE 3KM NAM, ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME, LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS AND BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RAINFALL
RATES.
THE QPF IS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD STILL RECEIVE CLOSE TO AN INCH. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS, POSSIBLY TO THE TUNE OF TWO
INCHES, STILL RESIDES OVER THE KANAWHA VALLEY. HOWEVER, THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHERE THIS
AXIS SETS UP, WITH THE CANADIAN WAY UP NORTH, THE HIRESW FV3
CORE A BIT TO THE NORTH, THE HIRESWARW SOUTH, AND THE NAM SUITE
OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KANAWHA VALLEY. WITH FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE ON THE ORDER OF 1.75 INCHES IN ONE HOUR, 2.25 INCHES
IN THREE HOURS, AND UP AROUND 3 INCHES IN SIX HOURS, AND THIS
BEING A LONG DURATION EVENT, URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED STREAM
RISES WILL OTHERWISE BE BENEFICIAL AND WELCOME.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLOOKED ONLY GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE (~500-1000 J/KG)
FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS,
WHICH WILL EXACERBATE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT, AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS.
THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. IT THEN MAY NOT
RAIN FOR A WHILE AGAIN.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY COMPARED WITH THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S COME
DAWN WEDNESDAY, LOWEST NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST SOUTHEAST, IN THE
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BY SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
GONE BY DAWN, AND LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL COME
TO AN END DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MODELS
DO VARY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, VARYING FROM NEAR
TO A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S, LOWEST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
WHERE FROST IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. VALLEY FROST IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS.
THURSDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AND DRIER UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S, LOWEST IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, WHERE FROST APPEARS EVEN MORE LIKELY THAN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NOTORIOUSLY COLDEST SPOTS, WHERE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S OR AROUND 30. VALLEY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
LOWLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND INTRODUCED FOR NORTHERN WV THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES DURING THE SHORT TERM, RESULTING
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL, DRY, AND PLEASANT AUTUMNAL
WEATHER.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN (GEM) MODELS, ALONG WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES (GEFS, EPS), ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST AND
GENERATING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
HOWEVER, AFTER THE LOW, POSSIBLY RATHER INTENSE, MOVES UP THE
COAST A BIT, IT GETS CAUGHT UNDER A REX BLOCK LATE IN THE
UPCOMING EXTENDED WEEKEND, AND THEN EITHER DRIFTS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR OUT TO SEA.
EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING TREND, AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST, INDUCING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST. OVERNIGHTS WILL
REMAIN CHILLY BUT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MODERATE, DIMINISHING THE
FROST THREAT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-70S UNDER CONTINUED
SUNSHINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPECTACULAR FALL WEEKEND FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AS SOME MODELS HINT AT THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...
AN APPROACHING MOISTURE-LADEN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
GULF WILL CONTINUE SPREADING CLUSTERS OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING, AND THEN ON EAST ACROSS THE
AREA, REACHING THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR
VISIBILITY DEVELOPS IN THESE CLUSTERS IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING, AND THEN ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ALSO DEVELOP.
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DECREASE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES, BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR OR BETTER
PREDOMINATELY THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND GOING INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE RAIN SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT, WITH VISIBILITY LOWERING TO IFR
IN RAIN AT TIMES. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT, WHICH ALSO CROSSES OVERNIGHT.
IFR CEILINGS PERSIST FOR A SHORT TIME BEHIND THE FRONT, LIFTING
TO MVFR BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY NORTH, AT PKB AND CKB. VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN BETTER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS THE
FRONT CROSSES AND THE RAIN ENDS, WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
PREVENTING OVERNIGHT POST-RAIN IFR FOG FORMATION.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING, AND CAN STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND
BECOME GUSTY AT LEAST UP NORTH, AT PKB AND CKB. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MODERATE
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING, AND THEN DIMINISH A BIT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALOFT TONIGHT, AND THEN SWITCH TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT OVERNIGHT, AS IT TOO MOVES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN RAIN TODAY
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST, AND THEN CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE LIKELY
TO FLUCTUATE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS UNDER STRATUS MAY
MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN FORECAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHTNING AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IMPROVEMENT BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/07/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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