267
FXUS61 KRLX 090616
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE HIGH DRIFTS BY NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY, WITH CHILLY NIGHTS, AND FROST
POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
GOES-R NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY EVINCES RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND ON UP THE
MOUNTAINS. ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS.
THE FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW LEVEL FLOW DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS.
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE ARE GRADUALLY ERODING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. THIS WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. WHILE A MODEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, LIMITING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING, WELL-PROTECTED VALLEYS SHOULD STILL DECOUPLE
AND COOL EFFICIENTLY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED, LEADING TO
AREAS OF FROST WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZE IN THE TYPICAL
MOUNTAIN COLD SPOTS. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS AND WILL PLAN TO LEAVE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL
RIDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS, REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRESENTS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT
LEAST PATCHES OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND A
FREEZE IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
COLD AIR DRAINAGE ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,
WITH NOTORIOUSLY COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE NORTHERN LOWLAND COUNTIES, PERHAPS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
MAY LIMIT FROST FORMATION IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS INITIATES A WARMING TREND
UNDER CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES, WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS COLD, WITH
ISOLATED FROST POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH A FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE QUIET AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
FEATURES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A COMPLEX INTERACTION
BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A
NORTHERN STREAM LOW DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, IF THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW POSITION ENDS ON THE THE SOUTHERN ENVELOPE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
GOES-R NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY EVINCES RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EKN IS LIKELY TO
BOUNCE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SETTLING INTO A MORE
PERSISTENT VLIFR DENSE FOG THROUGH 12Z. FOG ALONG THE ELK RIVER
WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CRW AROUND 08Z, WITH A MORE PERSISTENT
VLIFR DENSE FOG 10Z THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING BKW,
EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MVFR MIST 08Z THROUGH 12Z.
THE FOG AND MIST WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OTHERWISE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS, AND NARY A CUMULUS CLOUD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TODAY WILL VEER TO LIGHT EAST
TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO EAST, SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN IS FORECAST IF WINDS GO CALM AT MORE SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/09/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
AT LEAST PATCHY IFR MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ039-040-
518>526.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM
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