313
FXUS61 KRLX 090713
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE HIGH DRIFTS BY NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKY, WITH CHILLY NIGHTS, AND FROST
POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...
GOES-R NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY EVINCES RIVER VALLEY FOG
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND ON UP THE MOUNTAINS.
ISSUED AN SPS EARLIER TO COVER THIS. EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE BURNING OFF.
THE FROST ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW LEVEL FLOW DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD,
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH NARY A CLOUD. DRY ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY, THE LATTER IN THE 30S.
HOWEVER, SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT.
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH, ALTHOUGH ANCHORED TO THE
MOUNTAINS, WILL BE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT COMPARED WITH THIS
MORNING ON ACCOUNT OF THE HIGH MOVING EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW, WITH LESS FOG.
AFTER THE CHILLY START, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR,
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT WILL ECLIPSE THIS MORNING AS THE COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR, SAVE PERHAPS FOR HILLTOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
COLD FIELDS. HOWEVER, WITH THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL
FLOW, EXPECT ONLY A FEW OF THE NOTORIOUSLY COLDEST MOUNTAIN
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE A FREEZE, AND, IN COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORS, OPTED TO HOLD WITH THE FREEZE WATCH IN OUR SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRESENTS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT
LEAST PATCHES OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND A
FREEZE IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
COLD AIR DRAINAGE ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,
WITH NOTORIOUSLY COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE NORTHERN LOWLAND COUNTIES, PERHAPS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
MAY LIMIT FROST FORMATION IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS INITIATES A WARMING TREND
UNDER CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES, WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS COLD, WITH
ISOLATED FROST POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH A FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE QUIET AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
FEATURES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A COMPLEX INTERACTION
BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A
NORTHERN STREAM LOW DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, IF THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW POSITION ENDS ON THE THE SOUTHERN ENVELOPE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
GOES-R NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY EVINCES RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EKN IS LIKELY TO
BOUNCE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SETTLING INTO A MORE
PERSISTENT VLIFR DENSE FOG THROUGH 12Z. FOG ALONG THE ELK RIVER
WILL BEGIN IMPACTING CRW AROUND 08Z, WITH A MORE PERSISTENT
VLIFR DENSE FOG 10Z THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING BKW,
EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MVFR MIST 08Z THROUGH 12Z.
THE FOG AND MIST WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OTHERWISE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS, AND NARY A CUMULUS CLOUD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TODAY WILL VEER TO LIGHT EAST
TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO EAST, SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN IS FORECAST IF WINDS GO CALM AT MORE SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/09/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
AT LEAST PATCHY IFR MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ039-040-
518>526.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM
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