060
FXUS61 KRLX 281549
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1149 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL END THIS
MORNING. THEN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM
BRINGS WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1144 AM TUESDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, TODAY
SHOULD BE A DRIER DAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THAN
WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL
FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOWER 60S IN THE LOWLANDS.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND AN EVEN LARGER, DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS LARGER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY, AND AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD, MODELS
PROJECT THAT IT WILL ABSORB THE SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-MAKER,
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES OF POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES, SOME SNOWFLAKES MAY ALSO MIX WITH THE RAIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1144 AM TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY WINDING DOWN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THURSDAY'S WIDESPREAD
RAIN, WINDS WILL ALSO TURN GUSTY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENS, CREATING A TIGHT ISOBARIC GRADIENT
OVER OUR AREA. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH AND EXCEED 40 MPH DURING
THIS TIME IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE LOWLANDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
CHILLY WEATHER IS FORECAST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE 50S IN THE LOWLANDS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY, LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH, WHICH CAN BRING
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. AGAIN, THE AIR WILL LIKELY
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FRIDAY. GENERALLY
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1144 AM MONDAY...
LINGERING ENERGY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES POTENTIALLY MIXING IN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MODELS ARE SPLIT REGARDING SUNDAY'S
FORECAST, WITH SOME SHOWING A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. MODELS ARE EVEN MORE INCONCLUSIVE REGARDING
NEXT WEEK'S PATTERN, BUT SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
WITH LINGERING ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 443 AM TUESDAY...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EXTENSIVE VFR CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z, MAINLY JUST AFFECTING BKW THIS
MORNING WITH MINIMAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10KTS, EXCEPT
KBKW SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JP
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