705
FXUS61 KRLX 290635
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
* SOAKING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, TOTALING
1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS
BUT COULD CAUSE MINOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DUE TO LEAF-CLOGGED
DRAINS.
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY DURING THE SAME PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY
IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS UP INTO THE METRO VALLEY.
HOWEVER, HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WAITS UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL TENNESSEE. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
LOW, WITH H850 WINDS INCREASING TO 35-45KTS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THIS STRONG CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME RAIN SHADOWING IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
RIDGES, WHILE ENHANCING RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE WINDWARD
(EAST/SOUTHEAST FACING) SLOPES. ADDITIONALLY, ISENTROPIC DESCENT
AS PARCELS CROSS THE RIDGES COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND (WEST/NORTHWEST) OF THE RIDGES TONIGHT.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS, BUT
THIS COULD BE JUST A LITTLE LOW FOR THOSE VERY LOCALIZED AREAS
WHERE PARCEL TRAJECTORIES INTERCEPT THE SURFACE. WHILE LIKELY
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH WET
LEAVES STILL ON TREES COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS AND
EVENTUAL RAIN, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM TUESDAY...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY, BRINGING CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF
DRY SLOT MAY MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO A LULL IN RAINFALL INTENSITY BEFORE HEAVIER SHOWERS
REDEVELOP AS THE COLD CORE PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD CORE ALOFT, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRAUPEL
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
RAINFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW DEPARTS, THOUGH LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TOTAL EVENT RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES AREAWIDE,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS IN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
35-45 MPH ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
THESE WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
FRIDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
SUBTLE TRANSIENT RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY
BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST. SOME SOLUTIONS
KEEP ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
WHILE OTHERS BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK LATE
SUNDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPLIT BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, WILL
CONTINUE TO DEFER TO THE LARGELY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
DEPICTED BY CENTRAL GUIDANCE YIELDING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND LOWER THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
HTS/CRW/BKW THIS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LEADING TO PREDOMINANTLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
IN RAIN AND MIST.
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND REMAIN GUSTY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, BUT LACK OF DECOUPLING
COULD MINIMIZE THIS THREAT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COULD SEE BRIEF FLIGHT IMPACTS FROM PASSING
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. TIMING OF HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/29/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS, RAIN AND MIST. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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