721
FXUS61 KRLX 291759
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. DRY FOR MOST FRIDAY/SATURDAY,
BUT LINGERING UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY, HEAVIER BANDS OF
RAIN ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE
TIME OF WRITING. A LOWER TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD UPSTREAM
IN KENTUCKY SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE HAS OVERCOME LINGERING DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS REMAINS THE CASE ACROSS OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE REASON BEHIND
WHY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE REMAINED LOW THUS FAR WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE IN QUESTION IS A NEARLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN
TENNESSEE, THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHURN ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AS STRONGER RAIN
BANDS SNAKE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE
PROGGED TO FALL ALONG OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO
LATE TONIGHT AS THE TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM MARCHES OVERHEAD. THE
CENTER OF THE STORM WILL TRACK OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, MAINTAINING
BLANKETED OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES MAY BE PLACED IN A RAIN SHADOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PULLING WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER THE DELMARVA REGION.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENT REMAIN ON TRACK TO RANGE
AROUND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO FROM NOW INTO OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, WHILE LOWER
TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WV WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SHADOW IS LIKELY TO SET UP ON THURSDAY.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED IN THE BECKLEY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG OUR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT IN THE MIDST OF THE ENCROACHING DISTURBANCE.
WE MAY SEE THESE WINDS EASE A BIT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT
THEY WILL RETURN IN EARNEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
THE SURFACE LOW PIVOTS INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DRAG LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE A CHANGEOVER
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR OUR HIGHEST ELEVATION ZONES BEGINNING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SNOWSHOE DEPICTS A SHALLOW COLUMN OF
MOISTURE CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY, YIELDING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN
ACCUMULATIONS FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. THE LATEST WPC SNOW FORECAST PAINTS A FAINT
LINE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS FOR FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS SET UP WILL ENFORCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY FRIDAY, WITH FORECAST TRENDS STILL HOLDING STEADY WITH GUSTS
ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR. GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO
EASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW VENTURES FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT LAKES MAY REMAIN PRESENT ON
SATURDAY THAT COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN RISE ABOVE FREEZING, THE PREVAILING P-TYPE WILL FALL
MOSTLY AS RAIN BEFORE H85 STREAMLINES SUGGEST A CUT-OFF OF LAKE
ENHANCED MOISTURE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES AWRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE WITH THE LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE COUNTRY, WITH SOME MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF DEEPENING AND
CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WHILE OTHERS HAVE
THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFFSHORE. THIS LEADS TO A SPREAD IN
RESULTING SURFACE FEATURES, SO WILL MAINTAIN CENTRAL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISEMENT OF LOW END POPS, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, FOR
EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
IN THE 50S/60S, THEN TUMBLING DOWN INTO THE 30S/40S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL SUPPLY ON AND OFF SHOWERS, SOMETIMES HEAVY, TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE TIME OF WRITING, LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WAS
INTERFERING WITH MUCH PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE,
BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH KENTUCKY. THE ANTICIPATION IS FOR HEAVIER RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO ENCROACH OUR FLIGHT SPACE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE NEARS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, THE BRUNT OF IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BLANKET THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD ONCE RESTRICTIONS TAKE HOLD
HERE SHORTLY.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. AN UPTICK IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSPIRES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH MAY YIELD
LLWS AT EKN AND BKW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IF
ONGOING SURFACE GUSTS PERSIST OVERNIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
SHEAR WILL LESSEN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING COULD VARY. LLWS AT EKN AND BKW MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN LOW CLOUDS, RAIN
AND MIST. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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