769
FXUS61 KRLX 300635
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AND BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
THE MAIN SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD CORE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY,
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND INCOMING COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
SHIFTS TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND 30 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. DID DISCUSS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR HIGHER RIDGES WITH
OUR NEIGHBORS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THIS MORNING, BUT THE
CONSENSUS WAS TO DEFER THAT DECISION TO THE DAY SHIFT.
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW, COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN,
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
WEST-FACING SLOPES, SUCH AS AT SNOWSHOE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MOST VALLEYS AND
THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LINGERING UPSLOPE FLURRIES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AS PARCEL TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE
WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOL,
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST, WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY, BUT A BULK OF
THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY SAILS SOUTH OF US. WILL MAINTAIN EXISTING
LOW END CENTRAL GUIDANCE POPS FOR NOW, BUT IT IS INCREASINGLY
LOOKING LIKE SUNDAY WILL STAY DRY AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE SUNDAY
TROUGH WILL BE PINCHED OFF INTO A CUTOFF LOW, DIVING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR LARGELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL CREATE VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS,
PRIMARILY IFR TO LIFR IN CIGS, EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SURFACE
GRADIENTS SLACKEN TOWARD 09Z, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MIST OR FOG
TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION. ANY FOG THAT
DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
COLD ADVECTION AND MIXING INCREASE.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL LIFT OUT THIS MORNING, BUT A
LOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK, GENERALLY 008-012 OVC, IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED BY WRAP-
AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS MID-MORNING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COLD-CORE, LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 15-25KTS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CONDITION IMPACTS WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN MAY VARY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION AND RENEWED WRAP-AROUND AND COLD CORE SHOWERS
COULD VARY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/30/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H L L H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L H M M M H H L H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H L M H H M H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H L M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING BEGINNING SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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