727
FXUS61 KRLX 301822
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ON AND OFF SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AMID A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE. COLDER AND BREEZY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS. DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SERVES UP PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTWARD SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
* A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND
NORTHEAST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE TIME OF
WRITING, THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE WAS DEPICTED
OVER THE HEART OF PENNSYLVANIA, WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
AREAS OF CIRCULATION WERE STILL CHURNING OVER OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA. A FEW LINES OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY HAVE FORMED WITHIN
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, PROMOTING LIGHT ADDITIONS IN
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENT. THE COMBINATION OF
OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY, RANGING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO VACATE THE AREA INTO NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LEAVING BEHIND LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STARTING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BANK UP
ALONG THE NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE OPTIMAL NORTHWEST
STREAMLINE FLOW VANISHES. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES
TONIGHT, AND COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE WRAPPING UP FRIDAY MORNING. ANTECEDENT WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE SNOW FROM STICKING TO THE
ROADS OR SIDEWALKS, BUT COULD LAY ON GRASSY SURFACES BEFORE
DAWN. OUTSIDE OF AN OCCASIONAL FLAKE OR SPRINKLE, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME EVIDENT LATE TONIGHT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY FRIDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE
EASTWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS, GUSTS NEARING 45 TO 50 MPH
COULD BE OBSERVED ALONG OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES OF POCAHONTAS
AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. THUS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AMID THESE ANTICIPATED
ELEVATED WINDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER BEGINS IN A QUIETER STATE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S DEPARTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WILL COOL WEATHER FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CHURN
OUT A FEW MORE FLAKES IN HIGHER RIDGE AREAS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY,
BUT OPTIMAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PULL IN LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST AMID THE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH. CENTRAL GUIDANCE DOES PLANT THE AREA WITHIN LOW
END POPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW
GLOBAL MODELS PROPOSING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING AT
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ITS
ULTIMATE TRAJECTORY, WHETHER BEELINING FOR THE FORECAST AREA OR
DIVING SOUTH, REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO WILL MAINTAIN CENTRAL
GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECAST TRENDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE HONING IN ON A DRIER SOLUTION IN
COMPARISON TO PAST FORECAST CYCLES. THE CLOSEST WEATHER MAKER, A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FILLS INTO THE
HEART OF THE COUNTRY. ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL SUPPORT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
NEARBY LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE CULPRIT BEHIND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF HEAVIER RAIN
HAS PRESSED OUT OF THE REGION, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ON AND OFF SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO LOWERED
CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST, ONE LAST SWEEP OF IFR CEILINGS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURRING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS. SITES CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE DELAYED IMPROVEMENTS, AND PERHAPS LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENTS
AT ALL, AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENCOURAGES WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS FOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KTS
WERE INCLUDED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS
AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H L H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING BEGINNING SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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