661
FXUS61 KRLX 310101
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
901 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ON AND OFF SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AMID A DEPARTING
LOW. BRISK AND COLDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS. DRIER TO START THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
UTILIZED THE LATEST CENTRAL GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, TO BETTER JIBE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS RIDGES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THE
WIND ADVISORY TO TAKE EFFECT THERE AT 2 AM.
AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENTERING WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AND ITS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSE BEHIND, ITS
OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO A TRIPLE POINT SECONDARY
LOW CENTER OFF THE NORTHERN MIDDLE-ATLANTIC COAST, AND THEN ITS
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
AND A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO HURRICANE MELISSA WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SERVES UP PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTWARD SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
* A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND
NORTHEAST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE TIME OF
WRITING, THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE WAS DEPICTED
OVER THE HEART OF PENNSYLVANIA, WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
AREAS OF CIRCULATION WERE STILL CHURNING OVER OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA. A FEW LINES OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY HAVE FORMED WITHIN
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, PROMOTING LIGHT ADDITIONS IN
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENT. THE COMBINATION OF
OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY, RANGING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO VACATE THE AREA INTO NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LEAVING BEHIND LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STARTING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BANK UP
ALONG THE NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE OPTIMAL NORTHWEST
STREAMLINE FLOW VANISHES. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES
TONIGHT, AND COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE WRAPPING UP FRIDAY MORNING. ANTECEDENT WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE SNOW FROM STICKING TO THE
ROADS OR SIDEWALKS, BUT COULD LAY ON GRASSY SURFACES BEFORE
DAWN. OUTSIDE OF AN OCCASIONAL FLAKE OR SPRINKLE, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME EVIDENT LATE TONIGHT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY FRIDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE
EASTWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS, GUSTS NEARING 45 TO 50 MPH
COULD BE OBSERVED ALONG OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES OF POCAHONTAS
AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. THUS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AMID THESE ANTICIPATED
ELEVATED WINDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER BEGINS IN A QUIETER STATE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S DEPARTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WILL COOL WEATHER FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CHURN
OUT A FEW MORE FLAKES IN HIGHER RIDGE AREAS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY,
BUT OPTIMAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PULL IN LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST AMID THE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH. CENTRAL GUIDANCE DOES PLANT THE AREA WITHIN LOW
END POPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW
GLOBAL MODELS PROPOSING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING AT
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ITS
ULTIMATE TRAJECTORY, WHETHER BEELINING FOR THE FORECAST AREA OR
DIVING SOUTH, REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO WILL MAINTAIN CENTRAL
GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECAST TRENDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE HONING IN ON A DRIER SOLUTION IN
COMPARISON TO PAST FORECAST CYCLES. THE CLOSEST WEATHER MAKER, A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FILLS INTO THE
HEART OF THE COUNTRY. ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL SUPPORT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT INTENSIFYING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL KEEP
STRATOCUMULUS/STRATUS AROUND, WITH SHOWERS EARLY ON. IFR
STRATUS IS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING BUT IS
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR STRATOCU THERE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHOWERS WILL LOWER VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THE MVFR STRATOCU IN THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT WILL LIFT TO VFR
OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD DROP DOWN TO MVFR FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, BEFORE LIFTING INTO A VFR
CUMULUS/STRATOCU FIELD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR STRATOCU IN
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR
CUMULUS/STRATOCU FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST AT BKW. VISIBILITY
WILL BE VFR AMID DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF AN OCCASIONAL FLAKE OR
SPRINKLE ONCE THE SHOWERS END TONIGHT.
STRONG, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN TH MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS, PERHAPS BRIEFLY AS HIGH
AS 35 KTS. MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS
AND DEPARTING LOW MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. CEILINGS
MAY VARY AND FLUCTUATE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/31/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/TRM
NEAR TERM...05/TRM
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...TRM
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