649
FXUS61 KRLX 310530
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
ON AND OFF SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AMID A DEPARTING
LOW. BRISK AND COLDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS. DRIER TO START THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
UTILIZED THE LATEST CENTRAL GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, TO BETTER JIBE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS RIDGES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THE
WIND ADVISORY TO TAKE EFFECT THERE AT 2 AM.
AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENTERING WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AND ITS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSE BEHIND, ITS
OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO A TRIPLE POINT SECONDARY
LOW CENTER OFF THE NORTHERN MIDDLE-ATLANTIC COAST, AND THEN ITS
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
AND A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO HURRICANE MELISSA WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SERVES UP PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
* LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTWARD SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
* A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND
NORTHEAST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE TIME OF
WRITING, THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE WAS DEPICTED
OVER THE HEART OF PENNSYLVANIA, WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
AREAS OF CIRCULATION WERE STILL CHURNING OVER OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA. A FEW LINES OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY HAVE FORMED WITHIN
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, PROMOTING LIGHT ADDITIONS IN
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENT. THE COMBINATION OF
OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY, RANGING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO VACATE THE AREA INTO NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LEAVING BEHIND LINGERING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STARTING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BANK UP
ALONG THE NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE OPTIMAL NORTHWEST
STREAMLINE FLOW VANISHES. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES
TONIGHT, AND COULD YIELD A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE WRAPPING UP FRIDAY MORNING. ANTECEDENT WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE SNOW FROM STICKING TO THE
ROADS OR SIDEWALKS, BUT COULD LAY ON GRASSY SURFACES BEFORE
DAWN. OUTSIDE OF AN OCCASIONAL FLAKE OR SPRINKLE, MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME EVIDENT LATE TONIGHT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY FRIDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE
EASTWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS, GUSTS NEARING 45 TO 50 MPH
COULD BE OBSERVED ALONG OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES OF POCAHONTAS
AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. THUS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AMID THESE ANTICIPATED
ELEVATED WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER BEGINS IN A QUIETER STATE IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S DEPARTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND WILL COOL WEATHER FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY CHURN
OUT A FEW MORE FLAKES IN HIGHER RIDGE AREAS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY,
BUT OPTIMAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PULL IN LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST AMID THE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH. CENTRAL GUIDANCE DOES PLANT THE AREA WITHIN LOW
END POPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW
GLOBAL MODELS PROPOSING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING AT
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ITS
ULTIMATE TRAJECTORY, WHETHER BEELINING FOR THE FORECAST AREA OR
DIVING SOUTH, REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO WILL MAINTAIN CENTRAL
GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECAST TRENDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE HONING IN ON A DRIER SOLUTION IN
COMPARISON TO PAST FORECAST CYCLES. THE CLOSEST WEATHER MAKER, A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FILLS INTO THE
HEART OF THE COUNTRY. ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL SUPPORT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE OH RIVER, PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER SUBSIDING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PKB AND HTS. MVFR CEILINGS
AT CRW WILL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINALS SUCH AS CKB, EKN AND
BKW THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AT EKN AND CKB OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LINGERING LOW STRATUS CAN LAST THROUGH 15Z ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THEN, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN
BY 14Z ACROSS MOST SITES. WINDS GUSTS 18 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND UP TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DEPARTING LOW MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT. CEILINGS
MAY VARY AND FLUCTUATE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/31/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H M M M M H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/TRM
NEAR TERM...05/TRM
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ARJ
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