800
FXUS61 KRLX 310921
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
521 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST
RANDOLPH UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY.
THE POTENT LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM, NOW CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND,
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA, MAINTAINING A COLD, BRISK
FLOW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING 850 MB WESTERLY WINDS OF 45
TO 50 KNOTS UNDER COLD ADVECTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PORTION OF THIS MOMENTUM TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE LOWLANDS,
WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
SUBSIDING SOME THIS EVENING.
THESE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE A PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE
EFFECT AGAINST THE WEST-FACING SLOPES, SQUEEZING OUT REMAINING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEAN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY, RANGING IN
THE MID-50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, TO THE MID-30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS THAT SATURDAY WILL BE A
TRANQUIL AND DRY DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A CLEAN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS THEN SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME STRATIFORM RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE, WILL FOLLOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE, WITH POPS (PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION) OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND RESULTING IN LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
CENTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE NEXT RAINMAKER APPEARS TO BE A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, LOW
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 520 AM FRIDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
AREAS THAT CLEARED OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY EAST OF THE OH RIVER. HOWEVER,
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID- TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEFORE 12Z.
THE MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CUMULUS/STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON, AT LEAST AT BKW.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AFTER THE DEPARTURE
OF A DEEP LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TODAY TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS, GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS MAY FLUCTUATE TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/31/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L H H M L H M H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H L M M H H H H M H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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