425
FXUS61 KRLX 312320
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. DRY WEATHER OPENS UP THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER,
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK, WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH,
AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND HIGH PRESUME APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AS OF 505 PM FRIDAY...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES HAVING SUBSIDED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND EXPECTED TH CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, THE THREAT FOR ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND
GUSTS HAS ENDED, AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
5 PM.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH A DRY TRICK-OR-
TREAT EVENING ON TAP.
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ROUNDS OUT TODAY IN A DRIER STATE NOW THAT
LOW PRESSURE HAS VENTURED UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE
LEAVES BEHIND BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A
BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES
TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ROGUE GUSTS BEFORE AN EASE IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES SHAPE. WE MAY ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS HI-RES H85
STREAMLINES SUGGEST LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE STREAMING IN BEFORE
ITS ANTICIPATED CUT OFF LATER ON THIS EVENING BACK OUT OF THE
WEST. A LIGHT SPRINKLE AND/OR MOUNTAIN FLURRY CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT.
THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL YIELD
A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST TO OPEN UP NOVEMBER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH BACK INTO THE LOW 60S FOR SOME ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AND KANAWHA VALLEY AREAS, WHILE REMAINING IN THE
40S/50S ELSEWHERE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION, MAKING A QUICK DEPARTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE WAY FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVELING THROUGH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WILL SPIN UP AN AREA OF SHOWERS THAT COULD GRAZE THE
REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS WILL TRAVEL, WHICH AT THE TIME OF WRITING LOOKS TO DRIVE
DOWN INTO TENNESSEE AND THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AND
GENERALLY MISSES OUR FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED A BLANKETED 15-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS FOR SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN
GIVEN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
ONCE THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE SWINGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST,
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GROW IN EARNEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLACES ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK,
WHICH WILL ADVERTISE DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. THIS OUTPUT SUGGESTS A DRY AND COOL FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL PROMOTE
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A CLIPPER
SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES ROUNDS OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ATTEMPT TO
MAKE A RETURN WITH THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK 4-6 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP TONIGHT,
EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY EKN, WHERE IT MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CUMULUS/STRATOCU FIELD WILL BE AROUND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SCATTERED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL
ALSO BE ALTOCUMULUS AT TIMES, INCLUDING LATE SATURDAY, AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LIGHT OR BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT,
AND THEN BECOME WEST ON SATURDAY, WITH A MINIMAL PICKUP IN
SPEED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW, ALONG WITH THE CLOUD
DECKS, SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG FROM
IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS MAY FLUCTUATE A BIT IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05/TRM
NEAR TERM...05/TRM
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...TRM
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