397
FXUS61 KRLX 010533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT, TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST, SOUTH INTO THE
TN VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TO BRING THE BEST
FORCING OVER OUR LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONGER FORCING CAN
BE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MAINLY
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STAY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BENEFIT NORTHEAST KY, SOUTHEAST OH, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WV. HAVE ACCEPTED CENTRAL GUIDANCE WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS OVER
THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT.
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH BACK INTO THE LOW 60S FOR
SOME ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AND KANAWHA VALLEY AREAS, WHILE REMAINING
IN THE 40S/50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS, INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT, MAINTAINING 30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SUNDAY. ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
PROVIDING DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. A SLIGHT WARM UP
IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE
ARRIVING EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, SOME LOW-
END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE A RETURN WITH
THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, COURTESY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
OVERCAST ALTOSTRATUS ABOUT 6KFT REMAIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEN,
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A CUMULUS/STRATOCU FIELD MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
IT WILL BE SCATTERED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL ALSO BE
ALTOCUMULUS AT TIMES, INCLUDING LATE SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
WEST FLOW WILL BE GENTLE TODAY, WITH FEW GUSTS MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS MAY FLUCTUATE A BIT IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 11/01/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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