854
FXUS61 KRLX 020938
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
438 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, PASSING TO OUR SOUTH, WILL SPREAD PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A DRY,
SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 438 AM SUNDAY...
EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO COVER PKB AND CKB AS
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH ACROSS NE KY, SE OH AND
WV THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 138 AM SUNDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN, SPRINKLES,
AND VIRGA ADVANCING ACROSS THE KY AND WV BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED TO ADVANCE DEEPER INTO WV AND
SE OHIO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST SAGS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY TONIGHT.
LOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH OR MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING THE PARENT LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID AND WET. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID-40S IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL, GENERALLY IN
THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 138 AM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CLEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 138 AM SUNDAY...
A NEW SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, PUSHING A WARM FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT, ACROSS OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A MILD AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THEN A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD FOR FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER
IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 138 AM SUNDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL SITES, UNDER LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM
A 6000 FEET CLOUD DECK, ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE KY AND WV
BORDER. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE KY,
SW VA AND SOUTHERN WV, IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY 06-15Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.
ABUNDANT HUMIDITY, CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT BACK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLOUD BASES MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH TO INCLUDE HTS BY MID MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 11/02/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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