174
FXUS61 KRLX 111630
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1130 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WARM FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WAS CAUSING THE SNOW TO END AND CLOUDS
TO ERODE. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BRINGING MORE CLOUDS. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED
HOWEVER, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT, MAINLY JUST A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IF ANYTHING.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT THIS EVENING, ONLY TO PICK BACK UP
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH IN
THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME
COME WEDNESDAY WITH SWIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S.
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WILL BE MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED. A BRIEF SHOWER OF FLURRY IN THE
MOUNTAINS COULD BE POSSIBLE THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 45 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BEING COMMON. ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL SHOWCASE DRY WEATHER AND A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
SCHEME, BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD SWING WITH GUSTS
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
DOCKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S IN STORE FOR THE
LOWLANDS THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR RAIN LINGER SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...
MVFR CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL BECOME
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS COULD REFORM
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT THIS EVENING, ONLY TO PICK BACK UP
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH IN
THE LOWLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY
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