169
FXUS61 KRLX 112344
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
644 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WARM FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WAS CAUSING THE SNOW TO END AND CLOUDS
TO ERODE. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BRINGING MORE CLOUDS. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED
HOWEVER, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT, MAINLY JUST A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IF ANYTHING.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT THIS EVENING, ONLY TO PICK BACK UP
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH IN
THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND REMAINING ON
THURSDAY. A STRONG 850 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS VARY SOME ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR TO
EXPECT BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION IS POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD AFFECT CKB/EKN WITH
MVFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW AT THIS TIME AND ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.
WINDS ARE GOING TO FLUCTUATE AND SUBSIDE A BIT THIS EVENING,
ONLY TO PICK BACK UP LATER TONIGHT. GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW THE
25 KTS THRESHOLD, HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HIGHER
GUST AROUND 30 KTS NEAR CKB/EKN IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
TAKE A TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IF WINDS TEMPORARILY DROP OFF TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING ACROSS
MOST SITES WILL ENDURE WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE JUST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN ONCE WINDS STEADILY PICK UP
DURING THE DAYTIME THAT WILL NEGATE THE WIND SHEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT CKB/EKN IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ
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