838
FXUS61 KRLX 120652
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY, BUT WINDY. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
REGION FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DRIER WEATHER IN STORE. A WARM
FRONT CROSSES TODAY THOUGH WITH A 500 MB TROUGH HOVERING ALOFT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 45 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY. WINDS WILL START DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT OPT FOR A WIND ADVISORY SINCE GUSTS ARE
BORDERLINE JUST UNDER CRITERIA, PLUS WARM-AIR ADVECTION HAS A
HABIT OF BEING UNDERWHELMING AND MODELS OVER BOAST THE SEVERITY.
IT MAY BE AN SPS IS HOISTED ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH TODAY. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
SPRINKLE OR A FLURRY MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAIN'S
HIGHER RIDGES, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY ULTIMATELY PREVENT
THIS SO OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO THIS
WARM FRONT WITH THE LOWLANDS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
SPOTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA REACH 60F. THE MOUNTAINS OF COURSE
WILL BE A BIT COOLER RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH 20S AND 30S
EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND REMAINING ON
THURSDAY. A STRONG 850 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS VARY SOME ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR TO
EXPECT BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES MOVING IN PROMOTING DRIER WEATHER. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT IN A FEW
SPOTS LEADING TO THE NEED TO LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT
IS STILL BETWEEN 40 AND 55 KNOTS. THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR THE
LOWLAND SITES SUCH AS CRW, HTS, AND PKB.
A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD AFFECT CKB AND EKN, BUT
CENTRAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT COMMIT TO THIS AND KEEPS CONDITIONS
VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT CKB/EKN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN NOT IN THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 11/12/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC
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