585
FXUS61 KRLX 121723
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDY TODAY. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM WEDNESDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL CALM DOWN A BIT FOR THE LOWLANDS, WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG 850 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER HOWEVER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE LOWLANDS
AND SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SO A SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS VARY SOME ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR TO EXPECT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE ON THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER,
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ON THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 35 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CALM DOWN A
BIT FOR THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT, WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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