029
FXUS61 KRLX 130105
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
805 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE THIS WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. T/TD/RH WERE UPDATED
FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS, TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS
REMAINING A BIT ELEVATED WHILE WINDS GRADUALLY DROP OFF IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
AS OF 1130 AM WEDNESDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL CALM DOWN A BIT FOR THE LOWLANDS, WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG 850 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER HOWEVER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE LOWLANDS
AND SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SO A SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS VARY SOME ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR TO EXPECT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE ON THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 620 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY LOW-LEVEL WINDS, AND PERHAPS
A BIT OF LLWS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, BUT INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 15KTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS, AND EKN AND BKW COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO
20KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL PICK UP A BIT
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT SHOULD REMAIN MUCH LESS THAN
TODAY'S WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...FK/RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...FK
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