705
FXUS61 KRLX 130702
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
202 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, MILD, AND BREEZY AGAIN TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. REMAINING
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL A DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SOME RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS REIGN TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER
REMAINING IN PLACE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THIS MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AGAIN TODAY WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS EXPERIENCING A RESURGENCE OF WINDY
CONDITIONS. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
FOR MOST, BUT THOSE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TODAY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
50S. MODELS SHOW A LARGE DRY LAYER ALOFT THAT MAY MIX DOWN
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD CREATE RHS IN THE 30S FOR SOME LOCATIONS, MOSTLY THE
TYPICAL WARM LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOST OF IT WILL MIX DOWN
COMPLETELY GIVEN A LESSER WIND THREAT TODAY. STILL, SOME FUEL
STICK MOISTURES ARE IN THE 8-10GM RANGE (MOSTLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS) AFTER YESTERDAY'S DRY SPELL WHERE RHS REACHED 20% IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG
TODAY, BUT A FIRE SPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS TODAY WHERE LOW RHS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE.
WILL EVALUATE THE NEED LATER THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1215 PM WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG 850 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER HOWEVER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE LOWLANDS
AND SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SO A SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS VARY SOME ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR TO EXPECT
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE ON THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING, BUT WSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE DUE W'RLY OR WNW DIRECTION
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AGAIN TODAY, BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH 20-30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 11/13/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC
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