279
FXUS61 KRLX 131022
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
522 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, MILD, AND BREEZY AGAIN TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. REMAINING
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL A DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SOME RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS REIGN TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER
REMAINING IN PLACE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THIS MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AGAIN TODAY WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS EXPERIENCING A RESURGENCE OF WINDY
CONDITIONS. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
FOR MOST, BUT THOSE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TODAY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
50S. MODELS SHOW A LARGE DRY LAYER ALOFT THAT MAY MIX DOWN
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD CREATE RHS IN THE 30S FOR SOME LOCATIONS, MOSTLY THE
TYPICAL WARM LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOST OF IT WILL MIX DOWN
COMPLETELY GIVEN A LESSER WIND THREAT TODAY. STILL, SOME FUEL
STICK MOISTURES ARE IN THE 8-10GM RANGE (MOSTLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS) AFTER YESTERDAY'S DRY SPELL WHERE RHS REACHED 20% IN
SOME LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG
TODAY, BUT A FIRE WEATHER SPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY WHERE LOW RHS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED LATER THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 358 AM THURSDAY...
SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR DAY 3(SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT). THIS IS TO COVER AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL,
BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN STILL REMAINS
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL STILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT WILL BE LACKING THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
NORMALLY OUT AHEAD OF IT. A WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
THE LOWLANDS SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SEEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING RH PERCENTAGES IN THE 30S GIVEN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT
TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AT OUR DOORSTEP FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS IT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSHOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE IN PLAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND BENEFICIAL WITH MOST VALUES QPF VALUES
REMAINING BELOW A TENTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE ARE NO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS ON THE HORIZON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF
THE ABUNDANT WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWLANDS COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH THE 60S BEING
COMMON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY..
WITH THE WARM UP THAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY, IT IS ONLY
FITTING THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A STEADY PUSH OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE VERY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE
MORNING HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING,
LEADING TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE RAIN EXITS, BUT IT
DOES SEEM AS THOUGH IT WILL DRY UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD TEMPERATURE WISE, BUT DRY WEATHER LOOKS
POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH WHAT HAPPENS
NEXT, AS A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
TUESDAY. THEREFORE, LOWER CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE DETAILS, BUT
IT COULD TURN ACTIVE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 522 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT MOST SITES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING AROUND
15-20 KNOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE W'RLY
OR WNW DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY
AGAIN TODAY. GUSTS COULD REACH 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 11/13/25
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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