782
FXUS61 KRLX 132320
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1055 AM THURSDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM NOTICEABLY
COMPARED TO TODAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1125 AM THURSDAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE LOWLANDS AND SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. 70 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE AT A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ABUNDANT SHEAR. CAPE
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED HOWEVER, SO CHANCES REMAIN SMALL.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK
SUFFICIENT FOR AN UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1125 AM THURSDAY..
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY, PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME
MODELS INDICATE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHILE
OTHERS ARE WARMER AND DON'T HAVE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY REMAINS LOW.
MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DRY WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DO SHOW A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP SOME SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 620 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, BECOMING GENTLE SW-W'LY BREEZES
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS; RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...FK
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