926
FXUS61 KRLX 140555
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY. CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS FOR ONE MORE DAY UNDER THE GUISE OF
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. A PASSING WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S BY THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
AREAS WILL SEE A RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TODAY.
PASSING CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE DAY WEARS ON, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DUSK TONIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS COULD SPROUT ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN REGIME WITHIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND FORECAST ADVERTISES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT AND THE
ENCROACHMENT OF A COLD FRONT PRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS NORTHWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND OHIO. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH SOME SPOTS
TEETERING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SATURDAY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE MARGINAL RISK
WITH THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK AND PAINTED GENERAL THUNDER FOR
OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY. THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD AIR WILL USHER OVERHEAD AND RESULT IN A
MUCH COLDER AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
SET TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE IN
THE 40S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. STARTING WITH
TUESDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL INTRODUCE POPS BACK
INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPUR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH-
CENTRAL LOWLANDS BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
IMPACTS FROM THIS PASSING WAVE WILL PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GLIDES ALONG A NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT,
MAINTAINING CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE END OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME GLOBAL MODELS INFER A DRIER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING WARM FRONT. SOME
TERMINALS WILL DROP INTO MVFR STATUS AS A RESULT FOR THE END OF
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, THEN GROWING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, LOW LEVEL JET WINDS MAY GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE LLWS. WITH THIS ISSUANCE, SO FAR ONLY HINT AT THIS
OCCURRING AT PKB, BUT MAY INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL SITES WITH FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 11/14/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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