763
FXUS61 KRLX 141031
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
531 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY. CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS MASKED BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING.
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS FOR ONE MORE DAY UNDER THE GUISE OF
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. A PASSING WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S BY THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
AREAS WILL SEE A RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TODAY.
PASSING CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE DAY WEARS ON, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DUSK TONIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS COULD SPROUT ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN REGIME WITHIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND FORECAST ADVERTISES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT AND THE
ENCROACHMENT OF A COLD FRONT PRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS NORTHWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND OHIO. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH SOME SPOTS
TEETERING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
LIMITING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SATURDAY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS TRIMMED BACK THE MARGINAL RISK
WITH THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK AND PAINTED GENERAL THUNDER FOR
OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY. THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD AIR WILL USHER OVERHEAD AND RESULT IN A
MUCH COLDER AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
SET TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE IN
THE 40S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. STARTING WITH
TUESDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL INTRODUCE POPS BACK
INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPUR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH-
CENTRAL LOWLANDS BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
IMPACTS FROM THIS PASSING WAVE WILL PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GLIDES ALONG A NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT,
MAINTAINING CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE END OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME GLOBAL MODELS INFER A DRIER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE
LOWER SIDE FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...
EARLY MORNING CLOUD DECK PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL POSE NO
CONCERN TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER THE GUISE OF NEARBY HIGH
PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PROMOTE MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
SPOTS, SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL AT THE
CONCLUSION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
MAY GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LLWS. CONTINUE TO SEE THIS
POTENTIAL AT PKB TONIGHT, AND COULD SEE CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL
TERMINALS IF THIS TREND HOLDS WITH FUTURE FORECAST TRENDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page