792
FXUS61 KRLX 150005
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
705 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TURNING MUCH COLDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1119 AM FRIDAY...
TODAY WILL BE A COMFORTABLY MILD DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THAT WARM FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF IT. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE
SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE
BECAUSE OF VERY LITTLE CAPE (400 J/KG OR LESS). THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY ALOFT, WITH 60-75 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE, GUSTY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 20-30 MPH. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1119 AM FRIDAY...
A SHARP CONTRAST TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE LOWLANDS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
REACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1119 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
PRIMARILY RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
40S AND 50S. SOME WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PREDAWN TUESDAY WITH NEAR-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN
COMBINATION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF THIS IS VERY LOW AS
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO IRON OUT DETAILS.
BEYOND TUESDAY, MODELS BECOME VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND CHANCES WITH NUMEROUS VORT. MAXES IN
THE 500-MB FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW A POSSIBILITY
OF A LARGER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
KEEPING IT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY, AND
IMPACTING OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE GFS
SHOWS A FASTER AND WEAKER SYSTEM, SHOWING IT CROSSING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 640 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY, WITH A LOW-VFR CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES BETWEEN FL035 AND FL600 NOTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WV. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, MVFR CIGS MAY WORK INTO EKN LATE TONIGHT, AND TO CKB BY
12Z SATURDAY, THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN WV MAY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THOSE AREAS INITIALLY, WITH CRW POSSIBLY SEEING A SHOWER
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO MAJOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR VSBY. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP AT
ANY ONE POINT AT ANY ONE TIME, SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS HANDLED WITH
PROB30 AND VCSH MENTIONS.
SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS AN 850MB WIND MAX
MOVES OVER THE AREA. LLWS MAY LINGER DURING THE DAY, BUT DROP
BELOW TAF INCLUSION THRESHOLDS AS SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. MORE
LLWS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING OR NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-25KTS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF REDUCED CEILINGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...FK
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