560
FXUS61 KRLX 150514
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1214 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TURNING MUCH COLDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 740 PM FRIDAY...
UPDATED POPS THROUGH 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CROPPING
UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WV A BIT FASTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT,
THOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY NOT HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND
INITIALLY DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. OTHERWISE, DID TWEAK
THE MINT FORECAST TONIGHT DOWN A BIT IN SPOTS, AS SOME AREAS
THAT DECOUPLED HAD ALREADY DROPPED CLOSE TO THEIR FORECAST LOW
TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES, JUST TWEAKING
T/TD/RH FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
AS OF 1119 AM FRIDAY...
TODAY WILL BE A COMFORTABLY MILD DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THAT WARM FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF IT. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE
SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE
BECAUSE OF VERY LITTLE CAPE (400 J/KG OR LESS). THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY ALOFT, WITH 60-75 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE, GUSTY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 20-30 MPH. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1119 AM FRIDAY...
A SHARP CONTRAST TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE LOWLANDS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
REACHING 40 MPH AT TIMES. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1119 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
PRIMARILY RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
40S AND 50S. SOME WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PREDAWN TUESDAY WITH NEAR-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN
COMBINATION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF THIS IS VERY LOW AS
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO IRON OUT DETAILS.
BEYOND TUESDAY, MODELS BECOME VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND CHANCES WITH NUMEROUS VORT. MAXES IN
THE 500-MB FLOW ALOFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW A POSSIBILITY
OF A LARGER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
KEEPING IT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY, AND
IMPACTING OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE GFS
SHOWS A FASTER AND WEAKER SYSTEM, SHOWING IT CROSSING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM SATURDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS WE AWAIT A WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH. CEILINGS AROUND
THE REGION REMAIN WITHIN VFR EARLY THIS MORNING AND DON'T SEE
THAT CHANGING MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS TO
OVERNIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SURFACE
WINDS GUSTS AND LLWS ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS A LOW
LEVEL JET NOSES THROUGH THE AREA. KRLX VAD WIND PROFILE AT THE
TIME OF WRITING SHOWS 30-35KTS SITTING NEAR 2,000FT AGL THIS
MORNING, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SUGGESTING
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE JET. LLWS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BKW.
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. OUTSIDE OF WINDS, MOST OF THE DAY WILL STAY RELATIVELY
QUIET BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ENCROACH BY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL DRIFT INTO SUB-VFR THRESHOLDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD IN
ADDITION TO A MENTION -RA. WHILE A STRONG JET CONTINUES ALOFT,
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE, SO
WITHHELD ANY MENTION OF LLWS WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF REDUCED CEILINGS
WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 11/15/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/26
NEAR TERM...FK/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...05
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