547
FXUS61 KRLX 161051
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
551 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
BECOMING MUCH COLDER AND WINDIER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 550 AM SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY COMPLETED ITS JOURNEY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN ANTICIPATED, SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES TO REMAIN ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE,
CLOUD COVERAGE AND POPS WARRANTED NO CHANGE AS THEY CONTINUE TO
BEHAVE AS FORECAST.
AS OF 115 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND BRISK WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
* WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 MPH CONTINUE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
A BROKEN LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CUTTING THROUGH
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE TIME OF WRITING DENOTES
THE CURRENT LOCATION OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. LIGHTNING
SIGNATURES HAVE TRAILED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS THIS LINE ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE LAST OF OUR SEVERE WARNINGS/SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS, MONITORING HEALTHIER CELLS THAT HAVE HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAVE NOW COME TO AN
END.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE PREDAWN HOURS, DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF FROPA, WE CAN
EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION USHERING IN ALONG GUSTY TO BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. UPSTREAM OBS IN NORTHWESTERN OH AND INDIANA
SHOW TEMPERATURE READINGS TUMBLING DOWN INTO THE 40S, WHICH
WILL BE A STARK DROP HERE IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHERE
CURRENT OBS STILL DEPICT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL SAIL INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO RISE HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND 40S/50S ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS WILL
ALSO FEATURE A DROP IN DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WETTING RAIN FROM THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO STRONG
TODAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS,
WHERE STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOCAL WEATHER
STATIONS IN NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS COUNTY HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED
AVERAGE NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH, AND
EXPECT NOTHING TO CHANGE IN THAT ASPECT THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN
COMMON WITHIN TODAY'S POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM SUNDAY...
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE TURNING ACTIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY IS SLATED TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY, ALBEIT COLDER, DAY IN THE
MIDST OF THE SURFACE HIGH'S RESIDENCY OVER THE AREA. BRISK WINDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, ALLEVIATING THE NEED FOR THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY BY
LATE IN THE MORNING AS GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH. THIS WILL BE A
GRADUAL PROCESS, SO EXPECT SUB-CRITERIA BREEZY WINDS TO REMAIN
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINS.
A DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL IMPOSE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER HERE IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN INDICATIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS A LAYER OF
WARMER AIR ALOFT ENCOUNTERS COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS. CANNOT
ALSO RULE OUT A BRIEF INSTANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WILL TAKE ON A MUCH
WARMER REGIME WITH THIS APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ROUNDING OUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 AM SUNDAY...
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE FOR MIDWEEK INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS PLANTED
WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL USHER IN MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION, PROGGED TO FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A STRENGTHENING
DISTURBANCE MOVING UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK WILL IMPOSE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER UNDER THE
GUISE OF ITS ACCOMPANYING WARM AND COLD FRONTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 550 AM SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO VENTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINS. ALL
SITES AT THE TIME OF WRITING HAVE RETURNED TO VFR CEILINGS AND
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE NOW FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD UNDER THE
GUISE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS
WERE INCLUDED FOR ALL SITES TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST EXPECTED
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO TRAIL OFF
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE TONIGHT WHILE REMAINING BREEZY
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL MITIGATE FOG
PRODUCTION FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY BE OBSERVED AT TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY IN ANY AREAS THAT
BEGIN AS SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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