441
FXUS61 KRLX 162345
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
645 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
BECOMING MUCH COLDER WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 350 PM SUNDAY...
REDUCED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT ON-GOING
CONDITIONS. POTENTIALLY NOT GREAT RH RECOVERIES ACROSS THE SOUTH
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY ON MONDAY WILL YIELD
CONTINUED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED BY LIGHTER, BUT STILL SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
AS OF 1210 PM SUNDAY...
FORECAST AREA IS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVERNIGHT, WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TAKING HOLD. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, OWING TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAA, AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT OFF RIDGE TOPS IN PARTICULAR. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO PLACE, RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 20S TO 30S IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. FIRE DANGER SHOULD NOT
REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN HOWEVER, WITH RECENT RAIN OVERNIGHT, AND WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1210 PM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, AND SE OHIO, COULD START OUT AS A BRIEF WINTRY MIX
TUESDAY, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN, IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION, THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ON TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT OVERALL, CHANCES ARE
LIMITED. WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY, WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING IN ITS WAKE. WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RATHER CLOUDY, SHOULD OVERALL BE DRIER, AND WARMER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM SUNDAY...
TEMPS WARM NICELY THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, AND EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION, TRANSPORTING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. DETAILS ARE STILL BEING WORKED OUT AT THIS POINT, BUT IT'S
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A PERIOD OF GOOD SOAKING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY TAPER DOWN OVERNIGHT, WESTERLY / WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 8KTS ALTHOUGH AN OCCASIONAL CONTINUED GUST
TO 15 TO 20KTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MARGINAL LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EKN IF WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE WITH 35KTS ABOVE THE
RIDGETOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY IN ANY AREAS THAT
BEGIN AS SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...JP/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP
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