586
FXUS61 KRLX 171359
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
859 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BECOMING MUCH COLDER WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TODAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW RETURN ON TUESDAY. ACTIVE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK THEREAFTER WITH A SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 858 AM MONDAY...
THE THREAT FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES HAS ENDED, SO THE ADVISORY HAS
ENDED EARLY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT WINDS
WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
ALONG WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND THE 50
DEGREE MARK, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES, ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND
A COOL CRISP LOW 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL DROP OFF AT 10AM
IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS WIND INTENSITY DROPS OFF.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN AND IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20S IN THE LOWLANDS AND TEENS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. QUIET WEATHER TURNS ACTIVE IN THE NEXT PERIOD WITH
CLOUDS ADVECTING IN BY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING INTO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
BY TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
BY TUESDAY MORNING, CHANCES OF RAIN AND OR SNOW MAKE THEIR WAY
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM ORIGINATING
FROM THE WEST COAST. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM
PREVIOUS COLD AIR ADVECTION ANY PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL BE FREEZING. THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE CUT OFF VERY QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AFTER 12Z WHEN
THE LIKELY POPS START COMING INTO PLAY AND WHEN WE EXPECT
ACTUALLY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. THIS SOLUTION WILL ONLY AFFECT
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS UP THAT WAY, THEY TEND TO LEAN
TOWARD ALL RAIN WITH SOME AREAS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OR JUST SNOW
IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB SHORTLY THEREAFTER
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AND ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SWITCHES OVER TO AN ALL RAIN REGIME. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE AREA CHANCES OF A RUMBLE OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND WILL
CAUSE THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND
DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCES OF RAIN ON THE
TABLE GOING PAST MIDWEEK AND INTO THE NEXT PERIOD AMID A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA BY END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH VERY
HIGH CHANCES REMAINING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE
NATIONAL BLENDED MODEL FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD BE A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGING IN MORE RAIN AND LIKELY A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN TO KEEP FIRE DANGER IN CHECK THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN CENTRAL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON DAY 5 WITH GENERALLY 20% OR LESS PROBABILITY.
THEREFORE, WINTER WEATHER WILL TAKE A BREAK FROM THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS DURING THIS PERIOD
EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN ONE SYSTEM
AFTER THE NEXT. AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER LINE CHANCES MAY GO
HIGHER FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW, LOW PROBABILITIES ARE ON
THE TABLE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, GENERALLY 40% OR LESS. WORST
CASE SCENARIO SATURDAY WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AND SUNDAY MAY NOT
HAVE ANY WEATHER TO MENTION ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 530 AM MONDAY...
VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE WEST TODAY WITH GUSTY CONDITONS IN THE EASTERN SITES
WHERE GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WHEN
CLOUDS WILL START ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY IN ANY AREAS THAT
BEGIN AS SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ/26
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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