602
FXUS61 KRLX 171646
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1146 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1138 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND A 500-MB VORT MAX APPROACHES. RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY, SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
LOOKING AT SHORT- RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT THE
ONSET. HOWEVER, SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO FOR ONE OR TWO HOURS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1138 AM MONDAY...
500-MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO THE RETURN OF WARMER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AGAIN
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. LINGERING WEAK ENERGY ALOFT CAN
STILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL, WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRIER THAN TUESDAY.
THE MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN
DURING THE DAY AS WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES ALONG THE 500-MB FLOW. A
MORE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM OF ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS RANGING FROM 60 TO 80 PERCENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1138 AM MONDAY...
EXACTLY HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRACK AND EVOLVE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS TO BE SEEN, AS
THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WARM FRONT WILL REACH WEST VIRGINIA BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND STALL OVER THE AREA, BEFORE EXITING ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A UNIVERSAL SOLUTION ACROSS ALL
MODELS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN WILL BE, HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
FALL, AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT. FOR NOW, WE HAVE PLACED OUR
HIGHEST RAINFALL PROBABILITIES FOR FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING
PROBABILITIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 530 AM MONDAY...
VFR DOMINATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE WEST TODAY WITH GUSTY CONDITONS IN THE EASTERN SITES
WHERE GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WHEN
CLOUDS WILL START ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JZ
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