560
FXUS61 KRLX 181450
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
950 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CONTINUES
TURNING INTO A SHOWERY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THEN A ANOTHER RAIN
EVENT FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORMER ADVISORY AREA HAS RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE TIME OF WRITING. THEREFORE, THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
A BRIEF TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN WILL LIKELY
OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WHERE A LIGHT
GLAZE COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY ON
OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
WITH OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING AMID MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO BELOW
FREEZING. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP EVEN FURTHER DOWN INTO THE
20S DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN VALLEYS AND COLD SPOTS. THIS
WILL MAKE A FAIRLY GOOD SETUP FOR THE RAIN AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
DRIVING EASTWARD TOWARD US TO CREATE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN
THE MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS WHERE THOSE AREAS
ARE SLOW TO RECOVER FROM FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WHERE ROADS
ARE FREEZING OR BELOW.
THIS WOULD BE A QUICK WINDOW AS THE SUN COMES UP AND RECOVERS
MOST OF THE AREA, HOWEVER THOSE COLD SPOTS WILL LIKE HAVE
ISOLATED AREAS OF A GLAZE OF ICE IF THOSE AREAS DO NOT RECOVER
FAST ENOUGH. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE TO
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AS IMPACTS WOULD BE GREATER UNDER THE MORNING COMMUTE FROM 6AM
TO 10AM. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE AREAS
THAT ARE MORE SHELTERED. SOME LIMITED IMPACTS COULD EXTEND INTO
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE RAIN FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ITS VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN AND SPREAD THE RAIN
EASTWARD. FORECAST MODELS DO HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE
WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE RAIN TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE TO START
OFF. THE SOUNDINGS HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS BEING
OBSERVED, THEREFORE THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT HELP IN THIS
WINTER PRECIPITATION TRANSITION, THEREFORE ELECTED TO GO WITH
THE BLENDED MODEL FORECAST TO WHERE ANY CHANCE FOR SNOW OR SLEET
IS VIRTUALLY WIPED OUT.
RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES ACTIVITY
AND THOSE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AS HEIGHTS RISE IN ANTICIPATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE ARE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW COMPARED TO TUESDAY, WITH POPS
GENERALLY UNDER THE 25% MARK.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THURSDAY BUT THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
UNDER ZONAL FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. BY THE NIGHTTIME, A
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM TEXAS, THANKS AGAIN TEXAS, WILL BE
DIRECTED BY ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF US. THIS FEATURE WILL START TO AFFECT OUR AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MORE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM OF ENERGY WILL
LEAD TO A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH POPS RANGING FROM 60 TO 80 PERCENT BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY TO WHERE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES QAUSI-STATIONARY ACROSS OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION, THEREFORE VERY HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO WHERE PROBABILITIES
OF UP TO 90 ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE CHANCES WILL DROP OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 30-40%, BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WHERE THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP, AND
HOW LONG IT WILL STALL FOR.
MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM KICKING OUT TOWARD THE EAST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A TWO DAY
BREAK UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA
POSSIBLY BY MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUE TO RISE PAST THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AND MORE SO FLATTEN OUT TO AROUND SEASONABLE FOR THIS
PERIOD AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 540 AM TUESDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AT FZRA BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED A 2HR PROB30 GROUP AT
PKB TO REFLECT SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL.
VFR TRANSITIONS TO MVFR UNDER SOME VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO IT.
IFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER STRATUS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AT THE WESTERN SITES OF PKB POSSIBLY HTS. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L M M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H M M M L M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M H H L H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H H M H M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H M M H H M
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE TODAY IN RAIN AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER
LOW STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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