706
FXUS61 KRLX 040149
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE ANTICIPATED BURST OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED WITH A
COLD FRONT. MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT THIS SNOW TO ARRIVE TO OUR
OHIO COUNTIES BETWEEN 4AM-6AM, THEN MOVING WNW TO ESE ACROSS OUR
AREA. CURRENTLY, SE OHIO, NORTHERN WV AND THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OF SNOWFALL. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT MOST OF THIS WILL BE FALLING IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS MUCH
SLOWER TO ERODE THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING, BUT IT IS
FINALLY SHOWING SOME SIGNS ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXTENDED THE PERIOD
OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT NOT EVERYWHERE WILL TOTALLY CLEAR, BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES, BUT POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE CWA. GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD
CAUSE SOME IMPACTS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THURSDAY MORNING, AND
HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1238 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS, TO POSSIBLY THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTH. FOCUS ON FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF STATES. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT, WITH CONTINUED RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODELS. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN AT TIMES/IN SPOTS, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
PROFILE/DEPTH, AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CRYSTAL
GROWTH. MODELS STILL OVERALL CONTINUE THE DRIER TREND, WITH GREATER
CHANCES MAINLY ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN/MOUNTAIN ZONES. IN FACT,
MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER, THE BLEND OF
MODELS CONTINUES TO PAINT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A CHANCE OF POPS,
WITH LIKLIES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY, AND WILL MAINTAIN, AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING
HOLD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNCERTAIN, BUT APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING DRIER. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA, BUT EVEN THIS
IS HIGHLY VARIABLE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 711 PM WEDNESDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH THE
MOUNTAINS (BKW, EKN) FINALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. THE GENERAL TREND
IS THAT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR.
AROUND OR AFTER ~06Z A CROSSING COLD FRONT WILL REINTRODUCE
LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR OR LOWER) WITH A BURST OF SNOW SWEEPING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WNW TO ESE BETWEEN ~06Z AND ~15Z
THIS MORNING. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AND
ACCUMULATIONS AT CKB, EKN, AND PKB AS A RESULT. ENTERED PROB30
GROUPS FOR SITES OF LESS CONFIDENCE.
AFTER ~15-16Z, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA AS WELL UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, MODELS
START SHOWING A WEST TO EAST IMPROVEMENT WITH MVFR ONLY
REMAINING AT BKW, EKN, AND MAYBE CRW.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY
STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AS A NW'RLY SHIFT OCCURS. GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M H M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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