697
FXUS61 KRLX 040546
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE ANTICIPATED BURST OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED WITH A
COLD FRONT. MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT THIS SNOW TO ARRIVE TO OUR
OHIO COUNTIES BETWEEN 4AM-6AM, THEN MOVING WNW TO ESE ACROSS OUR
AREA. CURRENTLY, SE OHIO, NORTHERN WV AND THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OF SNOWFALL. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT MOST OF THIS WILL BE FALLING IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS MUCH
SLOWER TO ERODE THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING, BUT IT IS
FINALLY SHOWING SOME SIGNS ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXTENDED THE PERIOD
OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT NOT EVERYWHERE WILL TOTALLY CLEAR, BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES, BUT POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE CWA. GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD
CAUSE SOME IMPACTS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THURSDAY MORNING, AND
HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1238 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS, TO POSSIBLY THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTH. FOCUS ON FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF STATES. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MAKE IT, WITH CONTINUED RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODELS. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN AT TIMES/IN SPOTS, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
PROFILE/DEPTH, AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CRYSTAL
GROWTH. MODELS STILL OVERALL CONTINUE THE DRIER TREND, WITH GREATER
CHANCES MAINLY ALONG OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN/MOUNTAIN ZONES. IN FACT,
MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER, THE BLEND OF
MODELS CONTINUES TO PAINT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A CHANCE OF POPS,
WITH LIKLIES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY, AND WILL MAINTAIN, AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING
HOLD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNCERTAIN, BUT APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING DRIER. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA, BUT EVEN THIS
IS HIGHLY VARIABLE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR WORSE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
IFR VISIBILITIES, MAINLY AT PKB, CKB, AND EKN. CEILINGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, WITH 15
TO 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY
AFTERNOON. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 12/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M L H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M L M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H L H L H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...20
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