131
FXUS61 KRLX 041033
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
533 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF I-64, AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE PRESENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY, THEN AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM SPREADS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW, WITH
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST WV,
SOUTHWEST VA, AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT, WITH AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND 30S IN THE LOWLANDS. TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY,
WITH TEENS TO LOW 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 20S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA, BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALL SNOW, THOUGH SOME
RAIN COULD MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DIMINISHES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALSO ALLOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD TREND DRIER, A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD COULD PROMPT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS TRANSIT THE REGION. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS OFFERS A
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTRY WEATHER; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING, TRACK, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ARE LOW DUE TO DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 530 AM THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. PKB, CKB, AND EKN ARE MOST LIKELY SITES TO EXPERIENCE
RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW. CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z, MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD AGAIN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. WINDS WILL PIVOT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 12/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H M H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN A WINTRY MIX ON FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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