024
FXUS61 KRLX 041733
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1233 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF I-64, AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE PRESENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY, THEN AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM SPREADS PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW, WITH
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST WV,
SOUTHWEST VA, AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE LIGHT, WITH AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND 30S IN THE LOWLANDS. TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY,
WITH TEENS TO LOW 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 20S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA, BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALL SNOW, THOUGH SOME
RAIN COULD MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DIMINISHES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALSO ALLOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD TREND DRIER, A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD COULD PROMPT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS TRANSIT THE REGION. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS OFFERS A
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTRY WEATHER; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING, TRACK, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ARE LOW DUE TO DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM THURSDAY...
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS/OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR WILL STILL EXIST.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SKIRT BY TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS KPKB AND KCKB. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND AREAS OF
LIFR TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IN THE 06-14Z TIME PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, SOUTHERN WV, AND THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. AREAS TO THE NORTH/NE KY/SE OHIO AND PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL WV WILL HAVE MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW
CEILINGS, AS LESS LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE, PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE/TIMING OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR
OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST WITH MORE SITES
EXPERIENCING SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
SHOULD PRECIPITATION SHIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...SL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page