201
FXUS61 KRLX 041803
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
103 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM CROSSES BY TO OUR SOUTH, SPREADING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT, WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS.
FOCUS ON FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS TO A SYSTEM THAT WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL CREATE A QUICK SHOT OF A HEAVY WET SNOW,
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. WITH THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES THAT HAVE OCCURRED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THERE
BE ANY SHIFTS WITH PRECIPITATION FIELD, AS COULD CONCEIVABLY RECEIVE
GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OF ADVISORY AREA THAT CURRENTLY
PROJECTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER UNCERTAIN, BUT APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING DRIER AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AT
TIMES SATURDAY FROM A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY STARTING OUT
AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN HEADING TOWARDS MID WEEK.
EACH SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL WINTRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, TRACK AND IMPACTS OF
COURSE REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM THURSDAY...
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS/OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR WILL STILL EXIST.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SKIRT BY TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS KPKB AND KCKB. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR AND AREAS OF
LIFR TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IN THE 06-14Z TIME PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, SOUTHERN WV, AND THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. AREAS TO THE NORTH/NE KY/SE OHIO AND PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL WV WILL HAVE MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW
CEILINGS, AS LESS LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20 KT RANGE, PARTICULARLY AFTER 08Z FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE/TIMING OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR
OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST WITH MORE SITES
EXPERIENCING SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
SHOULD PRECIPITATION SHIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ024>026-033-034-515>518.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
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